Battling / Annotated Battles

This set features:

• Switching

• Best of 3 adjustments

• Double targeting

• Pressure

• Setup

• Surprise Factor

Game link

This game is a late Worlds Swiss round between Will Tansley (GB) and Nils Dunlop (SE), two titans of the VGC 2017 season. VGC 2017 was marked by slow-paced games featuring heavy amounts of switching, in part due to the “50% berries” (Figy, Iapapa, Wiki, Aguav, and Mago Berry), which restored a large amount of health and could be held by multiple Pokemon per team. This set, conversely, plays at a breakneck pace: Nils sets up his Snorlax with Belly Drum and it’s up to Will to figure out how to stop it from running through his whole team.

VGC 2017 specific information

• Only Pokemon native to the Alola Pokedex were allowed (Sun and Moon)

• Pokemon could Z-move (more details on what these were)

• Check out the usage statistics here to see what Pokemon and moves were popular.

• Figy, Iapapa, Wiki, Aguav, and Mago Berry restore 50% of a user’s lost HP instead of 33% when the user reaches 25% of its max health (50% with Gluttony)

Game Analysis

Game 1

Team Preview

Both teams are fairly standard (at first glance) for the VGC 2017 era, and they both have many options available to them. Nothing really leaps out to me by just looking at Team Preview as to how one player could gain an advantage over another. 

Turn 1, Game 1 (2:00)

The Snorlax mirror match is more dangerous than it looks at first glance – in VGC 2017, Snorlax could run either a Curse set (win condition over a long period of time) or a Belly Drum set (win condition over a shorter period of time). If one or both players’ Snorlax have Belly Drum, the situation could get dangerous fast, which is the risk that each player is considering at that moment. 

(Note that because Nils’ Persian is faster than Will’s Togedemaru, its Fake Out will go first, so it can flinch Snorlax or Togedemaru. Togedemaru is forced to Fake Out Snorlax, because if Persian uses Fake Out on Snorlax, and Togedemaru uses Fake Out on Persian, Nils’ Snorlax gets a free move.)

Turn 2, Game 1 (3:10)

The situation has become much more precarious for Will, because Nils’ Snorlax is now ready to attack after Belly Drum– and worse, it’s assuredly faster after Will’s Snorlax’s Curse. Nils’ Snorlax is now threatening massive amounts of damage on both of Will’s Pokemon, and Will must respond to the pressure. 

Both players learn that Will’s Snorlax survives a +6 Return after one Curse. That is incredibly important information that both players will make use of throughout the set. 

Turn 3, Game 1 (4:55)

Both players make relatively safe plays here. 

• Will realizes that if Snorlax targets Togedemaru, it won’t survive the +6 Return. However, he realizes that Celesteela can survive that attack (worst-case scenario):
  +6 252+ Atk Snorlax Return vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Celesteela: 165-194 (80.8 - 95%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
  And thus the switch to Celesteela is relatively free. It also covers High Horsepower in case Nils’ Snorlax runs that set.

• Nils realizes that Togedemaru can easily pick off his own Snorlax, so he Protects it. If Foul Play 2HKOs Togedemaru, Nils could pick up both Pokemon on the following turn.

Turn 4, Game 1 (6:10)

Trading Snorlax is the best case scenario for both players. 

Turn 5, Game 1 (7:04)

At this point Nils has run out of resources to deal with Will’s Tapu Fini and the game ends quickly and without event. Note that Will’s last Pokemon is not revealed, so Nils has less information about Will’s gameplan to work with for future games.

Game 2

Game 2 Team Preview

It’s become clear to both players how central Snorlax is to the battle on each side. 

• Will’s Snorlax after Curse survives a +6 Return from Nils’ Snorlax

• Will’s Celesteela survives a +6 Return from Nils’ Snorlax

Each player has to choose their Pokemon for Game 2. They have the option to make adjustments to their strategy based on Game 1. When you pick your Pokemon for Game 2 or 3 of a set, you can do one of several things:

• Change your strategy entirely to challenge your opponent in a new way

• Keep the same strategy, but change your moves slightly on a crucial turn

• If you won Game 1 or 2 soundly, or your opponent got extremely lucky to beat you, you can keep the same strategy and same moves and force your opponent to react to it or lose

The players keep the same leads. This can be interpreted from Will as “I liked how Game 1 went and it’s up to Nils to change things up”, and from Nils as “I can see how a slight deviation in how Game 1 went could turn the game in my favor.” (Especially given the crit on Turn 2 Game 1!)

Turn 1, Game 2 (12:20)

A repeat of leads and moves means that Nils is going to try to change things up to turn the tide in his favor very shortly. 

Turn 2, Game 2 (13:34)

And here we see the crux of Nils’ plan: by chipping Will’s Snorlax with Foul Play, Will’s Snorlax is now in range to get knocked out by Nils’ Snorlax’s +6 Return. Even worse for Will is that he’s now blown the surprise of Encore on his Togedemaru. However, Nils may have been playing around this Encore as early as Turn 2, Game 1!

Note that even if Will knew that this was coming, he would still be nearly powerless to stop it. He would have to switch in a Pokemon that could deal with Snorlax, and Persian is still in a commanding position. Furthermore, Nils’ Snorlax could have just as easily attacked either of Will’s Pokemon. Will has absolutely no pressure on the board. 

Turn 3, Game 2 (14:20)

A last-ditch switch from Will in an attempt to survive in this game for a little longer. Note that this turn plays out very predictably for Nils– he doesn’t have to do anything crazy to be in a commanding position here. 

Turn 4, Game 2 (15:17)

Will is trying desperately to save a lost game but Nils doesn’t have to overthink anything and can just attack.

Turn 5-on, Game 2 (16:16-21:00)

The rest of the game finishes without any error on Nils’ part and, while Will gets some of the luck he is fishing for (Muddy Water accuracy drops, critical hits), he’s still too far behind to bring it back. He does get to see that Nils’ last Pokemon has changed as a result of the luck, which is useful information. 

Game 3

Game 3 Team Preview

Now that Nils has found a much more successful move on Turn 2, which Will has little way around, Will must adjust his game plan for Game 3. Will could continue down the same path as before, leading Togedemaru and Snorlax, but Turn 2 Game 2 was so decisive that he’s unlikely to consider that. What can Will do? He can either try to disrupt Snorlax with supportive moves (like Togedemaru’s Encore) or threaten it with high amounts of damage. 

On the other hand, Nils is in a very solid position. He found a move that his opponent has very few solid options against. Furthermore, Persian outspeeds all of Will’s Pokemon. This means that if Nils’ Snorlax gets a Belly Drum up, any threat to knock it out in one hit or to disable it can be stopped with a Quash and +6 Return. With smart double targeting he has very little to worry about given what he’s seen on Will’s team so far. 

At this point, Nils could switch up his game plan entirely if he thought he knew what Will was going to try and do to beat Snorlax. However, it’s not exactly clear how Will intends to do that. For example, if Will had a strong Fighting-type Pokemon that could knock out Snorlax in one shot (e.g. Pheromosa) he would probably lead it in Game 3, and Nils would maybe have to plan around that. But Will doesn’t, and Nils probably doesn’t know everything about Will’s team, so it’s much less obvious how Will can change things up. Better to stick to what works so far. 

Leads, Game 3 (23:41)

Nils has kept the same lead and Will has changed entirely to Garchomp and Celesteela. In VGC 2017, Garchomp often held Groundium Z for a powerful single-target Z-move. If I were Nils, this would send a plain and simple message: Will intends to Groundium Z the Snorlax to prevent it from setting up Belly Drum. Celesteela can run interference in the meantime with Leech Seed and Heavy Slam, and it generally cares less about Snorlax anyway.

Turn 1, Game 3 (24:14)

Now on this turn Will double switches! Double switching is a risky maneuver because you deal no damage and could take lots of damage. In this case, Will lets a Belly Drum happen for free. 

But he has to have some motivation for doing so. Notice that the double switch gives Togedemaru Fake Out pressure on Persian. 

From Nils’ perspective, it’s clear that Tapu Fini is about to Haze the boosts of Snorlax away. Tapu Fini wouldn’t have switched in for offensive purposes: Snorlax has huge Special Defense (maybe to knock out Persian, but it could just Parting Shot away). The only reason that Will would make a double switch is to Haze, thinking quickly through Tapu Fini’s moveset.  The surprise factor of Haze is thus blown by the knowledge that Nils has about the situation.

Turn 2, Game 3 (25:33)

Will gets the Haze off, but thanks to the Foul Play from Persian, he’s actually not in a great position. Persian threatens a knockout on Togedemaru and Will still can’t really stop Snorlax from doing what it wants, even though Belly Drum’s boosts are gone. Worse, he has no real path to clearing Persian. Togedemaru is forced to switch or Spiky Shield, meaning that Nils has the option to take some initiative: he can either go for the knockout on Togedemaru or Parting Shot off of Tapu Fini for relatively little downside. 

Turn 3, Game 3 (26:25)

Will double switches again. Typically double switching too often is a sign that you’re really in trouble, because you’re not doing any damage. 

At this point, Nils has both an HP advantage (Togedemaru is low) and a positional advantage (Garchomp is at -2 attack, and Snorlax just recycled its berry). Will is definitely on a back foot. 

Turn 4, Game 3 (27:53)

Will cannot prevent the Belly Drum from happening once more, and Swords Dances and switches to Togedemaru in an attempt to Fake Out + Z-Move (Tectonic Rage, Ground-type) into Snorlax. 

There are several reasons why the Arcanine could have switched out into Persian:

• Chiefly, if Nils had chosen to Flare Blitz into Celesteela with Arcanine, either Celesteela or Togedemaru likely would have been knocked out– but then Will could just switch in Tapu Fini and Haze while Garchomp deals massive amounts of damage. 

• If Celesteela Protects while Garchomp Swords Dances, both Arcanine and Snorlax face a good deal of damage.

• Trying to get Fake Out pressure for the turn after Belly Drum

• Dodging Earthquake + Flying combo (but Garchomp is at -2 Attack)

In any case, it is a very nice play that shows a lot of foresight. 

Turn 5, Game 3 (29:05)

Nils once again makes a play that has zero risks. 

• Snorlax is always going to be safe from the double target (Fake Out + Tectonic Rage)

• Even if Will makes a prediction and targets Nils’ Persian with Fake Out and Tectonic Rage, thanks to the Fur Coat ability it will survive easily

• Persian’s Foul Play will always pressure both Garchomp and Togedemaru. Garchomp cannot Swords Dance again or risk a potential knockout

After this point Will is unable to reenter the game. 

Wrap-Up

Nils used his Persian and Snorlax to their fullest effect and was able to create several zero-risk situations for himself throughout the course of the battle. Will is and was a very talented battler: however, his team did not have the tools to deal with Nils’ Pokemon when used in that way. It’s hard to say exactly what Will could have done better in this set: it’s challenging to play a very skilled player who has a team advantage on you and isn’t making any mistakes mid-battle. 

Quash and Belly Drum are risky moves to select in the broader case (in metagames outside of VGC 2017). Indeed, after VGC 2018 both Alolan Persian and Snorlax were much less powerful. However, there are plenty of lessons to be learned from Nils’ play. 

• After Game 1 of a best of 3: are there any slight variations to how the game just went that can turn it on its head? (Turn 2, Game 2)

• How can you limit your opponent’s options as much as possible, so that even if they predict, they aren’t able to break through your strategy?

• If you’re going to use setup moves with your Pokemon– what are the risks? What is the payoff if things go your way?

There are plenty of things to notice from Will’s play as well.

• If you find yourself double switching frequently– that’s a good sign that either you’re focusing too much on positioning, or your team is in trouble no matter what you do. Obviously, you can’t change your team during the World Championships. But if you’re testing on the ladder or in practice matches and you find yourself double switching too often, consider changing your team up, or focusing more on dealing damage. 

• Sometimes you can come up with a counter to your opponent’s plan (See Turns 1 and 2 of Game 3). But notice that even though the game played out exactly as Will planned, he was still at a major disadvantage. This isn’t easy to do, but if you can manage to think out the consequences of the plans you make mid-battle, you’ll be more informed.