Paul Chua vs. Diana Bros, North American Internationals 2019

11min 27sec read

Watch how tiny differences in similar battles can have a big effect.

Written by Aaron Traylor

Battling / Annotated Battles

 

This set features:

  • Momentum

  • Protect and Double Protect

  • Surprise factor

  • Prediction

Game link

This is an early Swiss round at the North American International Championships between two strong American players. VGC 2019 Ultra Series was a year featuring restricted Pokemon, and games in that format were fast-paced and left little room for error. 

VGC 2019 Ultra Series specific information

Game Analysis

Game 1

Team Preview

These teams feature a classic matchup in VGC 2016 and 2019: Xerneas / Primal Groudon versus Rayquaza / Primal Kyogre. Xerneas and Primal Groudon are paired together because they are immensely strong in comparison to everything else in the format, and Rayquaza and Primal Kyogre are paired together because they reliably stop Groudon (and from there, you can target Xerneas). Diana has Stakataka, which is her only reliable way to knock out Xerneas in one hit, whether or not it has boosted using Geomancy. These Pokemon will be the centerpiece of the match. 

Turn 1, Game 1

Incineroar and Xerneas is a classic lead: Fake Out and Geomancy, and sweep from there. Paul puts it up to Diana to position well around this threat. 

Before you watch this turn, think about what moves each Pokemon is likely to click, and into which targets. 

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This is an extremely interesting turn for two reasons. First, Kyogre has one of the strongest Water-type attacks in the game, and Incineroar is a Fire-type: it’s obscenely clear to both players that Kyogre threatens to one-shot Incineroar. However, from Paul’s perspective, losing Incineroar may not actually be the worst thing. These games go lightning fast, and Incineroar fainting gives Paul a free switch to Groudon between turns 1 and 2, thus rendering Diana’s Kyogre unable to use Water-type moves on the following turn.

Second, Diana switches out her Tapu Koko for Stakataka. This move is a big deal, because at first glance she could have used Volt Switch with Tapu Koko, which would have accomplished the same switch as well as put some important damage onto Xerneas. However, Diana responds to the same realization that Paul had: Kyogre taking the Incineroar knockout was actually what Paul could have wanted, so he was likely to Fake Out Tapu Koko! 

Note that should Paul have clicked Fake Out into Kyogre (which I think many would call the more obvious move), she would still be in a great position with Kyogre and Stakataka on the field. Groudon has to manually switch, which is too little too late before Stakataka sets up Trick Room or outright knocks out Xerneas.

Turn 2, Game 1

Groudon threatens to knock out Stakataka. Stakataka threatens to knock out Xerneas (or set Trick Room). Kyogre cannot use Water-type moves in the extremely harsh sun. Diana’s Stakataka could switch out to Rayquaza for its Air Lock, which would negate the extremely harsh sun, but Xerneas applies massive pressure with its Geomancy-boosted Fairy-type attacks.

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Look at the reaction from Paul once Dazzling Gleam fails to knock out Rayquaza! He did not expect for it to survive that attack. It’s just been revealed that Rayquaza is holding an Assault Vest– and is probably pretty bulky on top of that. This was a fairly common Rayquaza set at some points during the Ultra Series metagame but there’s no way that Paul could have known that Diana had the item– otherwise he may have doubled into Stakataka with Moonblast + Earth Power.

Turn 3, Game 1

It’s now challenging for Diana to reach the boosted Xerneas, but Stakataka should clean this game up without major problems regardless.

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This is a nice prediction from Paul to regain a bit of ground. Note that, of course, this play lost to Dragon Ascent into Amoonguss and any attack by Kyogre. But that would be a prediction on Diana’s end as well, and now we’re getting ahead of ourselves. 

Turn 4, Game 1

Xerneas and Amoonguss will not be able to resist Stakataka’s onslaught, but Paul will do his best. Two Moonblasts from Xerneas should take out Stakataka. 

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Tapu Koko Protects here for a very important reason: to reset Electric Terrain after Turn 5. The only way that this game spirals out of Diana’s control is if Stakataka falls asleep, which Electric Terrain prevents. By Protecting on Turn 4, she assures that she will at most lose one Pokemon that turn, leaving herself on Turn 5 with one Pokemon in the back to switch in for Tapu Koko on Turn 5 when the terrain expires. Then Tapu Koko can reset it any time it wants. Paul has no counterplay to this.

Turn 5, Game 1

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Diana successfully preserves Tapu Koko. Trick Room means that Stakataka will move before both Xerneas and Amoonguss. 

Turn 6, Game 1

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Stakataka cleanly takes the KO on Xerneas and that should be the game, as Amoonguss can’t win 1v3. 

Note that two worlds exist in which Diana loses this game– first, another Protect/Spore play. Paul likely did not make this play because he doesn’t want Diana to take advantage of that pattern. Second, Amoonguss can Rage Powder away Gyro Ball, forcing Diana to Rock Slide, which can miss. However, this play invites an Origin Pulse as well (which can also miss, but the combined probability of one connecting with Xerneas is high). Paul respects Diana’s pattern recognition ability, as well as Kyogre’s attacking option on this turn, which Diana takes advantage of with her own ultimately successful prediction. 

Turn 7, Game 1 

The game concludes from here. 

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Game 2

Team Preview between Game 1 and 2

The chief thing on both players’ minds is still the relationship between Xerneas/Groudon and Rayquaza/Kyogre/Stakataka. From Paul’s perspective, now that he knows that Rayquaza is Assault Vest, he can adjust and clear it with a Moonblast. He would not mind the game returning to the same state as it did on Turn 2 of Game 1. From Diana’s perspective, she had to play very well through some tough spots to reach that win. Of the two players, despite her victory, I think she’s more likely to switch things up for Game 2 given Game 1.


Turn 1, Game 2

Diana has substituted Whimsicott. Presumably, this means that Tapu Koko hit the bench– Stakataka and Rayquaza are too important. 

Whimsicott is a chaotic Pokemon with access to many disruptive moves. Paul will have to tread lightly, as he likely has no idea what its moveset is. This is a dangerous position to be in down 0-1 of an important set.

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Whimsicott preserves its Focus Sash. From Paul’s point of view, however, he probably doesn’t want to risk losing his Incineroar for free again. 

Turn 2, Game 2

This is another dangerous turn for both players, with Diana having a slight advantage thanks to that Focus Sash. Incineroar is still in a tricky position.

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Whimsicott reveals Encore, but Paul plays around it! This cautious play saves his skin, as being trapped into Geomancy in front of an angry Kyogre and Rayquaza is almost certain doom. 

Turn 3, Game 2

However, Paul isn’t out of the woods yet, as Whimsicott could repeat Encore, this time trapping Xerneas into Protect. Diana is firmly in the driver’s seat.

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Diana makes a risky play, but this time she is punished hard for it, as Groudon takes a firm knockout onto Rayquaza. 

Diana could have made this play for many reasons, and although it went wrong for her there are some easy explanations. First– she could have expected Paul to double Protect with Xerneas, knowing that he knows he’s backed into a corner. This is almost certainly the case as she and Paul have respected each other’s abilities and decision making throughout the game. Second– she could have thought that Kyogre would move before Groudon anyway, as they could have been speed tying. Groudon is much more likely to be max Speed with a boosting nature than Kyogre is (especially if it’s the special attacking set), but it’s not out of the question that Groudon could be slower. 


This turn has an enormous impact on the game. 

Turn 4, Game 2

Stakataka has no chance of surviving a double-up attack and the game ends soundly. 

Game 3

Team Preview between Game 2 and Game 3

From Paul’s perspective, Diana’s Whimsicott is putting a major dent in the Xerneas setup that he has been aiming for. He needs to play around the play that Diana didn’t make moreso than the one that she did make: ultimately, what is stopping Whimsicott from Encoring Xerneas?

Note that Incineroar needs to be positioned perfectly to use Fake Out to stop Encore from going off on the turn after a Geomancy. This means that he would either need to switch in Incineroar midturn or after a knockout. These maneuvers are generally dangerous and a lot can go wrong. Paul likely would like to find simpler solutions.

From Diana’s perspective, she needs to figure out how to use Whimsicott to clear a path through Paul’s Pokemon. It’s applying a lot of pressure which is a nice position to be in, even though the last game ended up poorly. 

Turn 1, Game 3

Diana may have been cautious about leading Stakataka in games 1 and 2 because Groudon can knock it out rather easily, even with Shuca Berry. However, she has learned that Paul prefers the Incineroar / Xerneas and is unlikely to switch from it. Her strong position is a reward for making this call. 

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Diana makes another strong play. Just as in Game 1, a blind Water Spout could mean that Groudon hits the field, which would repeat the game state of Turn 2 Game 1– but now Paul knows about Rayquaza’s Assault Vest. Furthermore, Paul could simply switch Incineroar out for Groudon on this turn for the same effect. By switching Whimsicott in for Kyogre, she checkmates Xerneas, preserves Whimsicott’s Focus Sash, and creates an extremely awkward situation for Paul on Turn 2.

Even if Paul had seen this play coming, there’s not much he could have done for it. What’s more, this is a dangerous play to predict. If he predicts it (with a Fake Out / Moonblast into Xerneas), Stakataka does whatever it wants. If he only attacks with Xerneas, Whimsicott sets Tailwind for free, which means that Rayquaza and Kyogre will walk all over his team in the following turns. 

Turn 2, Game 3

Xerneas is checkmated by Encore. 

Note that if Paul had Taunt on Incineroar, there’s not much that Diana could do to stay in this game. She has accepted that with her Turn 1 and 2 play. 

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The Stakataka switch is interesting. It may be an attempt to play around an Amoonguss or Groudon switchin in the Incineroar slot. However, ultimately it makes her positioning more challenging. 

Turn 3, Game 3

We now have a near-exact replay of the Turn 2 Game 2 scenario. Diana is unlikely to make the same move as she did then, though.

The weight of the double Protect hangs over both players. 

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Paul secures the double Protect and thus a major advantage. There was only a 33% chance of this outcome happening– however, it was the best option for him, as he knows that Diana is probably not going to let a repeat of Game 2 happen. This is an example of a good player taking every chance necessary to stay in the game. 

In the future, Diana can secure a victory 66% of the time by always double Encoring. (The Nash Equilibrium mixed strategy provides a slightly higher winrate– but note that the Nash Equilibrium is not useful as humans generally do not act game-theoretically in VGC.) 

Turn 4, Game 3

Because Stakataka hit the field, there is no counterplay to the Eruption + Dazzling Gleam play from Paul. If Rayquaza hit the field, Diana may have been able to overwrite the harsh sun by Mega Evolving Rayquaza– however, Paul likely has many outs (such as switching out Groudon for Incineroar and then getting in the extremely harsh sun after Rayquaza faints).  

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The game concludes from here. 


Wrapping Up

VGC 2016 and 2019 games were fast-paced and extremely punishing. One small error in positioning or misprediction can end the game nearly instantly. Diana made strong plays throughout all 3 games– however, in Games 2 and 3, things went Paul’s way. Ultimately both players had a deep understanding of the options available to both them and their opponent, and made plays that both respected and capitalized on how their opponent would navigate that space. 

There’s a lot to be learned from these games.

  • Losing a Pokemon is not always the worst thing in the world– sometimes, the next turn can look very very good

  • Surprising your opponent (even if it’s with a common set/item) can cause grave miscalculations and win you a game

  • Protect enables you to stall through field effects (e.g. Electric Terrain) without your opponent having any counterplay 

  • Players will generally change up their moves when similar game states to previous games are reached

  • When your back is against the wall, take any move that can give you a chance at the win