Surprise Factor
7min 56sec read
When and how to make teambuilding choices that catch your opponents off guard.
Written by Wolfe Glick
Teambuilding / Abstract Building Blocks
Hidden Information in Pokemon
Information-- how much you know about your opponents team-- can play a major part of a Pokémon battle. In other multiplayer games like fighting games and chess, you know what options your opponent has at all times-- these games are perfect information games. In contrast, Pokémon is an imperfect information game, in which you don’t know every option available to your opponent. In Pokémon, you can only know for sure what tools your opponent has access to after they have already revealed them.
Each Pokémon has multiple traits that can be altered depending on the player’s decisions - the moves, item, nature, and EV spreads are all customizable facets of the game. Importantly, these elements are not visible from team preview-- you won’t know what your opponent chose until you find out during the game. Making a plan to defeat your opponent is dependent on knowing or assuming what decisions your opponent has made. Even decisions that may appear minor (e.g an unorthodox move or item, an unusual Speed stat) can have large implications in the way a match is played. This is one of the reasons why Game 2 or 3 in a best of 3 set will often play out very differently than Game 1 - the players have gotten additional information on their opponents team (and also on how their teams interact) and will often adjust midway through a set.
What this leads to in competitive Pokémon is an interesting tradeoff between:
Consistency, as described in previous articles. In this context, does your strategy remain powerful even when your opponent knows the choices you made?
and
Surprise factor: How influential are your choices when they are revealed to your opponent?
Surprise Factor
Surprise factor is a blanket term to talk about unorthodox options in Pokémon-- as players figure out what is strong within a format, standardization occurs, and by deviating from that, you can catch people off guard. This can be as simple as switching around the way a Pokémon is trained - for example, going faster on a support Pokémon than expected. Other options include running an unusual move or item on one of your Pokémon or even running a Pokémon that isn’t popular in order to catch opponents off guard. You can also use Pokémon in tandem in surprising ways - two priority moves or a surprise boost to your partner to pick up a surprise KO are some examples of combinations that can quickly swing a match.
When considering how heavily you weight surprise factor, you should consider the type of tournament you are playing in. Typically, unorthodox options perform better when fewer games are going to be played. Some players consider Best of 1, where the set is over after a single game, to be “gimmicky”, as players are rewarded for winning games with options that are difficult to predict. Conversely, teams that don’t rely on surprise factor will often perform well in a 2- or 3-day best of 3 tournament.
Here are some direct examples of what we’ve described above:
Switching around the way a Pokémon is trained: Ray Rizzo’s 2011 Thundurus. In 2011, almost all players ran Thundurus offensively (e.g. max Special Attack/Speed investment, no bulk, Electric Gem). For Worlds, Ray turned it into a defensive/supportive role, allowing it to spread Thunder Waves & survive on the field for much longer than expected.
Running an unusual move/item: Wolfe Glick’s 2012 Cresselia. In 2012, Cresselia was often seen in a support role, designed to set up Trick Room. Wolfe won US Nationals using an offensive Cresselia with Hidden Power Fire & Expert Belt - this allowed it to deal much more damage than expected & even pick up surprise one hit knockouts.
Running an unexpected Pokémon: Sejun Park’s 2014 Pachirisu. In 2014, Sejun Park won Worlds with Pachirisu, a Pokémon that was barely seen up until that point. As a result, few people knew their damage calcs well when going up against it. Sejun’s Pachirisu also enabled for some other surprise strategies on his team, such as Mega Gyarados, making it even harder to fight.
Best of 1 oriented strategies: In VGC2020, there was a wifi tournament where a rather unusual Porygon2 set did very well. A Max Attack and Max Special Attack Porygon2 with 4 attacking moves won this competitive tournament by Dynamaxing the Porygon2 and catching opponents off guard with the sheer damage output. This is what a more standard Porygon2 looks like. To learn more about best of 1 oriented strategies, check out our full article here.
You might be wondering what surprise factor actually looks like in a tournament. Let’s take a look at two examples.
EXAMPLE
Wolfe Glick VS James Baek: It’s the 14th and last round of Swiss at NAIC 2019, and the winner will make Top Cut while the loser will likely be eliminated. Cut to the middle of the game and I’m in a tricky spot - I have no safe switch in for an incoming Spore from James’ Amoonguss. Knowing this, James goes for Spore into my Tapu Koko who switches to Incineroar, but the Spore fails to activate thanks to the Safety Goggles item. Both Aaron Traylor and I had Safety Goggles on our Incineroar, but despite playing over 40 games combined, this was the only time Safety Goggles activated the entire tournament. Because this was the first (and only) time the item activated all tournament, James likely didn’t cover for the item on Incineroar.
Full match and the Turn in question
EXAMPLE
Wolfe Glick VS Brandon Meckley: It’s the last round of Day 2 Swiss at Worlds 2019 and the winner will make Top Cut while the loser will be eliminated. I’m down a game and in a decent position to have a chance to win game 2, when Brandon reveals that his Groudon has the move Dragon Claw. Groudon deals enough damage to my Rayquaza to seal my defeat. Brandon concealed that he had this move until the most pivotal point and used the advantage to make Top Cut.
Full Match and the Turn in question.
What’s the Balance?
It’s worth noting that consistency and surprise factor aren’t mutually exclusive - in my opinion, some of the strongest options in Pokémon are tools that are extremely difficult to prepare for if you’re caught unaware, and are still strong after they’ve been revealed. There is a difference between making a choice in teambuilding that is unorthodox but you expect to be strong, rather than picking an option BECAUSE it is surprising and unorthodox.
For players who are new to the game, I wouldn’t spend much time worrying about this concept - you need to first learn what is standard before you can deviate from it. For players who have a good grasp of what is popular and who are considering making choices in order to catch their opponents off guard, here are just a few things to consider:
Is the tournament best of 1 or best of 3? Best of 1 favors surprise factor
How useful is my choice once my opponent knows about it? This can be a range from completely unusable to not affected at all
What is my goal for this tournament? If you’re trying to win a tournament you’ll probably need more consistency, but if your goal is to top cut (advance past the first stage) surprises can go a long way
What is the opportunity cost of choosing to deviate from the norm? This mostly applies to moves and items, but you should be asking yourself what you’re giving up in order to use something that isn’t standard, and you should be considering the benefits each one gives you
How long is the tournament? The longer the tournament the more likely you are to run into somebody who already knows about your strategy
Common Pitfalls
There are several pitfalls to focusing on surprise factor as a main strategy. First and foremost, many players know what each Pokémon is capable of. Players commonly scour Pokémon’s information pages, trying to find a hidden edge or tactic that makes that Pokémon better– even if those same players roll up to a tournament using a completely standard team. Try not to rely on your opponent’s lack of Pokémon universe knowledge.
Second, in a best of 3 setting, your opponent will be able to adapt once the initial shock has worn off. You may need to rely on other aspects of your team, or to have multiple surprises in store for your opponent.
Lastly, your opponent may actually be able to infer some of your surprises. For example, if during team preview they threaten a Trick Room setup and sweep, and you lead seemingly unassuming Pokémon into their Trick Room setter lead, they may hedge that you have some move or hidden tactic that will disrupt their strategy.
On Open Team Sheets
Naturally, any tournament with open team sheets will have drastically fewer opportunities for surprises. Open team sheets typically include everything about a Pokémon except for their IVs, EVs, and Natures, which end up being the only opportunities for surprises.
Wrapping Up
Adding options focused on surprise factor is a stylistic choice that differs from teambuilder to teambuilder. Catching opponents off guard is definitely something to consider when building a team, but surprise shouldn’t be the primary driving force when starting. When I build teams, I focus on picking strong Pokémon that I believe in-- and if those Pokémon happen to do something out of the ordinary, all the better.